The Guangdong Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50 in May 2018.3, down 1 from the previous month.9 percentage points (see chart 1), showing a downward trend for two consecutive months。From the perspective of index structure, the five weighted indexes all declined from the previous month, and it is worth noting that the production index, new orders index and export orders index have declined for nearly two months, and the purchase price index has continued to rise for nearly two months。Overall, due to the steady growth of new orders, but rising raw material prices, the production and operation activities of manufacturing enterprises have slowed down compared with the previous two months, and the overall trend has stabilized。However, since the start of this year, the decline in industrial investment, exchange rate fluctuations, and the increase in external market uncertainties need to be vigilant about the downside risks of the industrial economy。The details are as follows:
Figure 1Trend chart of manufacturing PMI in Guangdong Province from January 2013 to May 2018
The production index (volume of production) was 51.4, down 1 from the previous month.Eight percentage points。The new orders index (product orders) was 52.0, down 1 from the previous month.4 percent, of which export orders were 50 percent.8, down 1 from the previous month.1 percent, the lowest figure this year。The production and sales index fell for two consecutive months, and the production and operation activities of enterprises slowed down compared with the previous two months。
The raw materials inventory index was 48.6, down 3 from the previous month.Nine percentage points。The raw material purchase price index was 55.5, up 0. 0 from the previous month.8 percentage points, has risen for two consecutive months。The inventory of raw materials declined significantly, mainly due to the rapid rise in raw material prices and the weakening of enterprise market expectations。
The employment index (production and operation personnel) was 47.9, down 2 from the previous month.0 percentage points, since February this year, the number of enterprises continued to decrease。
The supplier delivery time index is 49.5, down 1 from the previous month.7 percent, supplier delivery time is shorter。
Figure 2Trend chart of manufacturing PMI sub-index of Guangdong Province from January 2013 to May 2018
Table Table of major sub-indexes of manufacturing PMI of Guangdong Province from May 2017 to May 2018
In May 2018, the Guangdong Electronics and information industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 52.2, unchanged from the previous month;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for electrical machinery and special equipment was 52.8, up 1 from the previous month.7 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the food and beverage sector is 50.3, down 1 from the previous month.Eight percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the textile and garment industry is 48.2, down 4 from the previous month.0 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for petroleum and chemicals was 48.7, down 4 from the previous month.0 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for auto manufacturing was 52.6, up 1 from the previous month.2 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for pharmaceutical manufacturing is 50.3, down 2 from the previous month.1 percentage point;The Forest paper purchasing managers' Index (PMI) was 45.8, down 8 from the previous month.0 percent。
Expert interpretation
Chen Hongyu, a special expert in the interpretation of the provincial PMl index and a professor of the Provincial Party School, believes that the PMl index of our province was 50 in May 2018.3, it is the 27th consecutive month above the line of expansion and contraction, but it is also the lowest recorded since August 2016, and lower than last May.Six percentage points。This data shows that in May, the province's manufacturing enterprises continue to maintain the expansion of development trend, production and new orders two of the most important weight index, although down from the previous month, but still retained 51.4和52.The higher position of 0 indicates that the supply and demand of Guangdong's manufacturing industry have accumulated a certain momentum for development。Chen Hongyu also pointed out that in May, the three major "order indexes" of new orders, new export orders and backlog orders in our province were significantly lower than last month.4个、1.1个和1.Affected by the above market order factors, the purchasing volume index of manufacturing enterprises in our province was significantly reduced by 6 percentage points in May, and the three indexes of raw material inventory, finished goods inventory and imports, which are closely related to the production scale and production quality, were significantly reduced by 3 percentage points compared with the previous month.9个、3.6个和1.5 percentage points, indicating that the strong expansion momentum of manufacturing enterprises in our province for more than two years has shown signs of slow weakening。
Chen Hongyu believes that fundamentally, the core problem of the development of manufacturing industry in our province is that the development speed of new kinetic energy can not keep up with the decline speed of old kinetic energy, therefore, scientific and technological innovation and enterprise transformation and upgrading are two must pass the threshold。But the crux of the problem is that if most manufacturing enterprises are facing a market environment with gradually shrinking demand, it is difficult to focus on promoting innovation and high-quality development。Chen Hongyu suggested，Macro support for the development of the real economy，We can mainly focus on the following three aspects: First, we should make greater efforts to build and make good use of a good business environment for enterprises，We will do more to protect the property rights of enterprises，Cultivate more market players in the real economy，To expand the effective demand of enterprises by environmental optimization。The second is to build a new type of enterprise public service platform, focusing on helping enterprises to solve the "broken chain" problem of the industrial chain, value chain and innovation chain, and create effective demand for enterprises by deepening and extending the industrial chain。The third is to strengthen the reform of the government, further promote the reform of the administrative examination and approval system, fully implement the negative list system as soon as possible, open up more control areas, help enterprises reduce administrative costs and unreasonable tax burdens, and expand the effective demand of enterprises with government reform。
(Contributed by Asia-Pacific Economic Index Research Center, Guangdong Modern Logistics Research Institute, Operations Monitoring Division)